Foreign trade dynamics: US tariff ruling shakes the world, China Ecuador free trade dividend released, corporate compliance upgraded again

Release Time：2025-05-29 18:04:21 Views：72

Cover Image

Today's key developments: US Court of International Trade rules Trump-era tariffs illegal, potentially reshaping global trade; China-Ecuador FTA saves businesses over 12 million yuan in tariffs; Tighter origin rules worldwide force supply chain compliance upgrades.

Section 1: US Tariff Policy Shift Marks Global Trade Turning Point

Core ruling details (Source: China Galaxy Securities)  

  • On May 28, the US Court of International Trade ruled that Trump's 10% global tariffs and additional duties targeting China/Canada/Mexico were unlawful.  
  • Reason: Trade deficits don't constitute "national emergencies," preventing presidential overreach.  

Three possible scenarios:  

Scenario 1: Tariffs canceled (40% probability)  

  • Business advice: Accelerate US shipments to clear inventories  
  •  Market risk: Potential Section 232 investigations on semiconductors  

Scenario 2: Suspended but ultimately revoked (50% probability)  

  • Business advice: Pause high-tariff US exports until Q3  
  • Market risk: US stagflation hurting global demand  

Scenario 3: Appeals succeed (10% probability)  

  • Business advice: Accelerate "China+N" supply chain diversification  
  • Market risk: Fragmentation of global trade systems  

Industry impact: Electronics and machinery exporters gain short-term relief; Semiconductors and pharmaceuticals may face future sanctions.

Section 2: China's FTA Benefits Expand

Case study (Source: Hebei Daily)  

  • Great Wall Motors saved over 12 million yuan using 451 Certificates of Origin under the FTA.  
  • High-growth exports: NEV parts (+23%), furniture, steel products.  

Business action guide

  • Apply immediately: Use "Single Window" system for FTA partner shipments.  
  • Compliance alert: Vietnam/Thailand crack down on false origin labeling - maintain full material traceability.  

Section 3: New Customs Rules for Processing Trade

Tianjin Customs update (effective May 27)

  • Taxes apply when exporting 68 categories (e.g. chrome iron) containing Chinese materials.  
  • Tax exemption: Products using 100% imported materials.  

Compliance warning

  • Steel company case: 5 million yuan penalty for undeclared 30% domestic materials.  
  • Solution: Implement digital tracking for material sourcing and output.  

Section 4: Global Compliance Alerts

  • Rare earth exports: Licenses required for 7 categories (samarium, gadolinium etc.). Action: Stock 6-month inventory.  
  • Lithium batteries: New transport classification/packaging rules. Action: Obtain UN38.3 certification.  
  • Southeast Asia transit: Thailand pre-checks origin for 49 US-bound goods. Action: Shift supply chains to Malaysia/Indonesia.  

Section 5: Critical Action Items

  1. Use US tariff window: Clear goods in transit before retaliatory tariffs take full effect.  
  2. Origin strategy: Use Malaysian semiconductor hubs to avoid Section 232 risks.  
  3. Rare earth alternatives: Source gadolinium from Australia's Lynas (current 15% premium).    

Source integration: Phoenix Finance, Hebei Daily, Ministry of Commerce. Monitor Customs and court announcements daily during policy shifts.